Changing weather should stimulate Granite Gulch Fire

JOSEPH, Ore. — August 27, 2019 — Smoke columns could form over the Granite Gulch Fire this afternoon or Wednesday as a new cold front moves into northeast Oregon. A wave of storm activity is expected to follow Thursday, bringing higher winds and potential lightning.

There are three basics to fire behavior -- topography, fuels and weather -- but a tremendous amount of information is necessary to predict, or "model," a fire's level of activity.

"If the data is accurate, the models are pretty accurate," said Bret Ruby, a long term analyst assigned to the Granite Gulch Fire. "The models have been pretty accurate for this fire."

Fire modeling indicated fire activity would be minimal for the past several days, which is exactly what happened. New models suggest the fire will become more active and create more smoke, but will be disproportionate in size.

"When the air is unstable, even moderate fire growth can put out a lot of smoke," Ruby explained.

Some of the information analysts look at include live and dead fuel moisture levels, fuel loading (how much fuel is in an area) previously burned areas. They also look at historic weather, compare them to current weather and spot weather reports from the field, then factor in predicted weather.  

And the data collection is constant. Several firefighters are constantly observing the fire on the ground within the fire perimeter, directing helicopters in for water drops along the edge of the fire and periodically reporting weather observations, which the National Weather Service uses to develop focused forecasts for those specific locations within the fire zone. An additional crew of three spent the weekend collecting additional data, including fuel samples from a range of locations.

"I am very thankful to have such skilled and reliable firefighters to be my eyes on the fire," Incident Commander Adam Wing said. "With their quick updates, we are able to make the best decisions regarding managing this fire."