Granite Gulch Fire likely to finish season quietly

JOSEPH, Ore. — September 1, 2019 — With the onset of September, the chances of the Granite Gulch Fire escaping confinement drop fast.

"Conditions moderate pretty quickly through September," said Bret Ruby, a fire behavior analyst assigned to the fire., explaining that monsoonal rains start moving into northeastern Oregon in early fall.

Statistically, the likelihood of a season season-ending event -- sufficient precipitation to fully suppress a fire, if not extinguish it -- increases to 50 percent by September 29; reaches 75 percent by October 8; and hits 90 percent by October 15.

"In reality, fire spread events drop off before that," Ruby added. "We may be able to just let it kick around it there."

Explorers and pioneers named the Blue Mountains for the smoky haze generated by low intensity fires clearing the forest floor naturally in the late summer and fall.

"It's a very natural, common part of the landscape, Ruby said. "When we do get starts in the wilderness, we need to recognize when we have a good candidate to do some work. There have been some where we said no, it's too close to private property, or too close to the (wilderness) boundary."

Fire managers have been guiding the Granite Gulch Fire into an area along the Minam River where fire treatments have been done since the 1990s.  

"The last thing we want to have happen is all of the Minam to burn in one event," Ruby said. "The best want to keep that from happening is allowing these small fires from time to time."

For updated fire information, go to https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6498/